Why collectors need better information—and why AskFred was created
Few markets involve as much money and offer so little transparency as the art market. Whether buying at auction, at a fair or through a gallery, collectors often make decisions based on incomplete information, under time pressure and without anyone to help them assess what they are buying. The most important question—whether a price is fair—is also the hardest to answer. Having worked in the art world for more than 25 years, I have observed a persistent imbalance: those who sell generally know far more about the market than those who buy.
A market built on asymmetry
Sellers often know the full history of a work: where it comes from, what it was bought for, whether it has previously failed to sell, how many potential buyers have shown interest, and at what price. Buyers, by contrast, usually have little more than an estimate or an asking price to guide them.
Auction results are public, and collectors can easily access them through specialised databases. Yet a price alone tells only part of the story. It rarely reveals the condition of a work, whether the lot was guaranteed, whether the final price was driven by a single bidder, or whether a work listed as unsold was subsequently sold privately. Many significant transactions remain invisible because they take place directly between dealers and collectors.
Gallery prices are rarely published. They reflect the artist’s position in the market and the gallery’s strategy, and are generally kept stable, with adjustments made through discreet discounts rather than public price reductions. The information available to collectors therefore offers only a partial and sometimes misleading picture of the market.
Why similar works can have very different values
This is where things become more complicated. Two paintings by the same artist, in the same medium and of comparable size, can sell for prices that differ fivefold. There are concrete reasons for this.
A work from an artist’s most sought-after period is not equivalent to one from a period the market considers less important. An iconic subject will generally attract more competition than a lesser-known theme. Condition can have a significant impact on value, sometimes in ways that are difficult to detect in a photograph.
Provenance also matters. A work that has belonged to a renowned collection, been exhibited in a major museum or reproduced in the catalogue raisonné may command a premium. So does its history on the market. A work that has not been offered for decades may attract more interest than one that has appeared repeatedly in recent years.
Above all, quality matters. Within any artist’s body of work, some pieces are simply stronger than others, and experienced collectors have learnt to recognise them. A database records the price achieved, but not the factors that explain it.
How an adviser assesses a work
When a client asks whether a price is fair, I work through several factors. I start with the artist: the development of their career, the museums that hold their work, the exhibitions that have shaped their reputation, the galleries that represent them, and the attention they receive from critics.
I then turn to the market: comparable sales, price trends over time, and whether demand is broad and international or limited to a small group of buyers. I look closely at the work itself, assessing its quality and its place within the artist’s production. Finally, I consider the circumstances of the sale: who is selling, and why now.
An informed opinion emerges from weighing all these elements together.
This process requires time, access to information, experience and a trained eye. Collectors rarely have all four at their disposal when they need them most. Decisions are often made during an auction preview, at an art fair or in the final hours before a sale closes—precisely when an independent adviser may not be available.
AskFred
I have long aimed to make this kind of analysis accessible to collectors. In 2017, I launched ArtMarketGuru, a service offering art market reports. I closed it in 2019 because each report was too costly to produce. Artificial intelligence has since opened up new possibilities.
AskFred applies my approach to the questions collectors face when buying or selling a work. Users can research an artist, assess a specific work before purchasing it, or estimate the value of a piece in their collection before putting it on the market.
AskFred uses several AI models to research the market in real time, bringing together information on an artist’s biography, institutional recognition, exhibitions, galleries and recent sales. It then organises the findings into a structured report, following the same approach I would take, and concludes with Fred’s opinion and a fair value range.
The public artist pages offer an introduction to this approach. The page on Alberto Giacometti, for example, brings together information on museum collections, recent exhibitions and his position in the market. The full reports go further. The methodology is explained on the How It Works page.
An opinion grounded in facts
A tool of this kind is useful when its role is clearly defined. AskFred offers an informed opinion based on available evidence at the moment a decision needs to be made. It complements an expert’s examination of a work but does not replace it. Authentication remains the responsibility of specialists, and the report is not investment advice.
AskFred provides a structured, independent second opinion that collectors have long struggled to access when they need it most.
Collecting is a passion. Doing it with discernment is an art.
Frédéric de Senarclens is the founder of ArtAndOnly and AskFred. He advises private and institutional collectors.
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